Bukola Saraki’s Trial Could Have Significant Implications For Buhari, APC

Editor’s note: The current position of Senate president Bukola Saraki and all possible variations of his future are being widely discussed by Nigerians. The alleged attack on him – that Saraki’s team denies took place – by an angry mob in Ilorin, Kwara state, where Saraki served as governor, only stirred up the public interest in the ongoing trial where the Senate president is the defendant. The Naij.com columnist, Joachim MacEbong, writes on what Saraki’s case means for Nigeria’s politics.

Senate president, Bukola Saraki, before the tribunal in Abuja on September 22, 2015

As Bukola Saraki sat in the dock at the Code of Conduct Tribunal hearing on Tuesday September 22nd, many would be forgiven for thinking that his previous attempts to escape arraignment was just an exercise in futility, merely postponing the evil day, as it were.

There is also the sense that this is not going away for the former governor of Kwara state, and it will end in one of two ways: He either beats the charges, or gets beaten by them, losing his Senate presidency in the process.

How it will all end is still not quite clear, but Saraki made a tactical error by not appearing at the original hearing scheduled for September 18th, trying to secure an injunction against prosecution, and then trying to void the arrest warrant issued as a result of his failure to appear.

The trial has been adjourned to October 21st, and needless to say, all the efforts of his legal counsel will be deployed to getting the Senate president off. In the meantime, three distinct narratives of his travails have dominated the commentary space.

The three ways

The first is that the fact that a sitting Senate president can be investigated – unheard of before now – is proof that change is indeed here. Those who hold this view hail the new era of probity of the Buhari administration, and challenge Saraki to go to the Code of Conduct Tribunal to clear his name, just like Bola Tinubu did back in 2011. In that sense, they are correct. Instances of unexplained wealth or violation of laws should be accounted for, and if any wrongdoing is proved, appropriate action taken against said public official. The best anti-corruption war is one that starts from the top, and after the president and the vice president, the next object of scrutiny would be the Senate president.

The second narrative is not buying any of that, however. According to this view, Saraki’s current travails are the inevitable consequence of too much “ambition”: daring to go against the “party’s choice,” Ahmed Lawan, and to boot, the emergence of the PDP senator as deputy Senate president, which happened when the APC senators were at a meeting when they were supposed to be voting in the red chamber. This view is helped by the fact that some of the counts brought against Saraki date back to 2003. Some ask, rightly: “What was the Code of Conduct Bureau doing in that time, and why are these charges only coming up now?”

The third narrative says that, given the bad blood resulting from the legislative elections, it is obvious that the timing is politically motivated. It also insists, however, that only guilt or innocence should be the focus, not talk of a “witch hunt,” which is often a convenient escape for corrupt politicians who have robbed the country blind.

History is unfolding before our eyes

Whichever narrative prevails in the mind of the public will determine how efforts to fight corruption are perceived going forward. If the perception holds that only those who toe the party line are left alone, then it is not ideal. The government will have to go the extra mile to show that the process is fair to all concerned.

Public institutions that are supposed to monitor the conduct of public officials have a lot to do to make sure they stop being perceived as mere instruments used to hunt opponents.

There are other more immediate considerations. A divided Senate could slow down ministerial confirmations as well as the president’s broader legislative agenda, to the extent he has articulated one thus far.

In an extreme scenario, the presidency may have to deal with a hostile Senate in the months ahead, and it could have significant impacts on governance. Proper reform of the Nigerian state can only be achieved with cooperation by the legislature to amend existing laws, and such a process would be fraught with contention even in normal times.

The coming weeks and months will be very interesting. As Julius Caesar said before he crossed the Rubicon: “The die is cast”.

Joachim MacEbong for Naijcom

Joachim MacEbong is a communications professional and political analyst.

This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Naij.com or its editors.

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